Parcel carrier employment in the United States is entering a period of adjustment as two important forces are taking their toll: the cooling of e-commerce growth and the forced on-shoring of low-cost importers like Temu and Shein.
E-commerce growth, which surged at double-digit rates during the pandemic, is slowing and showing signs of more modest growth—roughly 6 percent annually per projections by McKinsey.
Between 2019 and 2024, the total U.S. parcel volume rose from about 15.8 billion to 23.8 billion packages, for an increase of ~50% above pre-pandemic levels, but much of that growth is increasingly handled by in-house logistics operations (e.g. Amazon) or regional/local carriers rather than legacy carriers like UPS, FedEx, and DHL.
End of the De Minimis Exemption
The elimination of the U.S. de minimis exemption (in full effect as of August 29th) accelerates this shift in resources. Importers that used to send large numbers of small, direct international shipments may now build out U.S. distribution infrastructure, shifting volume into domestic parcel networks.
"Importers that used to send large numbers of small, direct international shipments may now build out U.S. distribution infrastructure, shifting volume into domestic parcel networks."
From Cross-Border Warehouses to Domestic Fulfillment
When the de minimis rule quadrupled the exception from $200 per person, per day, to $800, this enticed exporters to set up supply chains that relied heavily on cross-border bonded warehouses in Canada and Mexico. This enabled them to avoid customs duties in combination with being able to quickly ship once an order from an individual customer came in.
For carriers today, the de minimis rule elimination means less ultra-small international parcel processing labor, but potentially more jobs in warehousing, fulfillment, and last-mile distribution, though this is just speculation.
Employment Impacts on Parcel Carriers
On the carrier side, the shifts are already visible in employment moves at the legacy carriers. UPS, for example, has announced it will cut about 20,000 jobs and close 73 facilities under a network reconfiguration plan. This large-scale adjustment follows decreased delivery volumes from its key customer Amazon, alongside similar pressures related to tariff changes and de minimis rule shifts.
"For carriers today, the de minimis rule elimination means less ultra-small international parcel processing labor, but potentially more jobs in warehousing, fulfillment, and last-mile distribution, though this is just speculation."
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, parcel carrier employment will be less influenced by top-end e-commerce growth and more so by supply chain realignment.
Retailers that are pushed to onshore will feed shipments into carrier networks differently—fewer international small parcels, more domestic warehousing/fulfillment work.
For carriers, that implies a geographic redistribution: fewer jobs at international gateway hubs and more in domestic regional hubs and last-mile carriers. This also poses the challenge of balancing cost control with maintaining service levels. In the most recent events, this is exemplified by UPS’s voluntary buyouts for full-time drivers and facility closures versus retail consumer expectations for speed and reliability.
The less-explosive-growth environment combined with an outright ban on duty-free shipments from abroad will certainly lead to a shift in the employment and operational landscape for both carriers and logistics providers.
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About the Author
Justin Wilcox is a Senior Solution Architect with JBF Consulting and has 20+ years of experience in the Transportation and Supply Chain industry. He has lead numerous initiatives with an emphasis on solution design, modeling, and TMS implementations to create highly customized logistics solutions, especially within complex supply chain networks.
FAQs
After pandemic-driven surges, e-commerce is normalizing. Growth is projected to settle at around 6% annually, far below the double-digit increases seen during 2020–2021.
The elimination means fewer ultra-small international shipments directly to consumers. Instead, importers like Temu and Shein will build U.S. distribution hubs, shifting volumes to domestic networks.
UPS has announced roughly 20,000 job cuts and 73 facility closures as part of a network reconfiguration. Similar pressures from reduced Amazon volumes and trade policy changes are reshaping employment across the sector.
Jobs will likely move away from international gateway hubs and toward regional warehouses, domestic fulfillment centers, and last-mile carriers that deliver directly to customers.
They must balance cost-cutting measures like facility closures and staff reductions with maintaining customer expectations for fast, reliable delivery in a slower-growth market.
